Shifting Of Tectonic Plates




The earth is made up of moving tectonic plates and yet we don't ever feel them moving, except when it is too late. That's when we have tsunami or earthquake and have death or destruction upon us.



Believe it or not, the tectonic plates of our finance world are moving and moving fast. Today the central bankers of the world led by Bernanke of the Fed are giving the last moment gift to the top 1% of the oligarchy. Because very soon another tsunami or earth quake will visit us soon which will make 2008-9 look like a movie trailer.



I am not a fan of Prechter or ZH and I do not like to continue spawning storing of imminent collapse. I have been long till January and have been on the sideline since. But we have not shorted the market despite various indicators saying top. Nor did I buy the theory of collapse of the world till now.



However, I see that we are reaching an important infliction point. My favourite route remains SPX reaching an important top in April, followed by a deep correction in summer. That should be followed by another sharp rally in Q3/Q4 before the onset of a deep bear market.  The exact timing of going long or short will vary and will be available to subscribers. These are general market direction but we use many parameters and price points to decide when to go long or short. The guiding principle is that the only way of wining is not losing.



For the month of Feb/March, many have paid subscription only to hear me say : wait , don't short, need confirmation of this or that before taking any action. There were no instant gratification because we are not looking to score on every 10 point turn. Rather the focus is on weekly or monthly trend and not get distracted by the news. If that is your focus as well, you are welcome to join the gang of subscribers. But if short term trading is your focus, I am not the right guy.



Hope you had a great Easter weekend and all ready for the month of April. It is going to be exciting in fits and starts and most likely will demonstrate the formation of an important top. But we are not going to front run and will wait for confirmation before taking any action.



Wish you all best of luck in your trading / investing.

Same Old, Same Old.






It has been a while I did a post here.

Fact of the matter is, while I am super busy and all the sabaticals that I took last year is now catching up with me, there is nothing much to do but wait patiently.

Yesterday the markets had a bearish reversal day. And today it is pumping up. All to convince the sheeples that the only way to get rich is TBFD.

So what yesterday's selling was all about? Did you say Cyprus?  Oh yes. The Euro politicians have shown that in case of emergency, they will put their hands where ever they can. Earlier they would socialize the loss and privatize the profits. Now they would rob the common men to save the Banksters. Great news now that we know that no body's money is safe.

And what is today's ramp all about. It seems because home prices are now at the highest level since 2008? So the problem of Euro Zone has been solved and we have the collective memory of a gold fish.

But none of these news drive the market. Rather they drive the retail investor sentimement. And speaking of that the powers that be (TBTF Banksters) know how to manipulate that retail sentiment. Over the last few months, the bottom level is being convinced that we are at the beginning of a new bull market. Only then the retail will buy stocks and they normally buy at the peak.

However, I think we will continue to see this rollar coaster ride for the major part of April before any decent correction. So my advice to the subscribers have been to stay on the sideline and avoid all kinds of temptations. It is still not the time to short yet.

We may get occational day or two when we will have 1% sell off but again we will see markets being pumped up on low volume. Doing anything in such sitiation is bad for our financial health.

I know it is damn difficult to remain patient for month after month and do nothinig when the entire 24/7 news media is trumpeting how we are missing on the golden opportunity of getting rich and retire quickly. But that is their agenda. Our goal is to protect our savings and investments.

Just remember, what goes up, comes down. And Wall St. is not above the laws of gravity.

 

Audio Engineering Questions

Once upon a time back in days of yore, I was asked by Terry Tompkins to record an album for his band The Now Feeling. It featuring guest vocals by Lisa Boudreau.  We made the album, my first, Lisa and Terry got married (the abbreviated version of this story) and now one of their progeny, Jody, works in audio.  He asked me some questions:



JT:  For me drums seem to be my weakest point in the mix, lets say we
have a well recorded rock drum kit 2 kick mics one in, one out ,Snare
top and bottom, a mic on the top head of each tom overheads and a stereo
room pair. The Kicks a little pillowy and the snare is lacking that
beautiful crisp crack that are in all the big records. Is there anyway
to explain your process of starting to tackle that whole beast. (let me
know if it would even be possible to answer ahah its a loaded question).



OM: Someone asked a well known engineer ( don't recall who) how he got a great drum sound, and he answered: "the three critical ingredients are a good drummer, a good, well-tuned drum kit, and a good room."  I agree. Start with the source.  If those three elements are in place, and it's recorded well then you almost have to do nothing more than turn up the faders.



My process of rescuing a poor drum sound would start with seeing what I could do with gating, compression and eq.  I would also try parallel compression.  Sometimes I'll mult the snare and/or kick to another channel, heavily gate, compress and eq that channel and blend it in.  Reamping the drums in some way can help.  One trick is to place your reamp speaker underneath another snare and  mic that snare.  Last resort would be to replace the drums with samples or add in triggered samples.  I rarely do that.



You're right, it's not really possible for me to answer the question except generally and vaguely, you just have to do it .... a lot!  Animators have something they call pencil mileage - skill at drawing comes from doing it over and over again.  So I recommend getting mixing mileage.  When I started  mixing recordings I felt all my mixes sucked.  One day they stopped sucking.  I don't know why except maybe for mixing mileage.



Also don't recommend getting fixated on any one component of the mix.  Maybe the drums don't sound good on their own, but can they work in the context of the whole track?  Bob Clearmountain, a mixer I highly respect, once said that he doesn't listen to the tracks in solo.  He brings up all the faders then makes adjustments based on the overall picture.  I'm not that extreme, I listen to the individual tracks as a staring point but always consider them in the whole context. 



The real power of a rock drum sound lies in the room tracks.  You can try triggered gating, phasing, flanging, pitch shifting, and/or distorting them with something interesting like an old reel to reel mic preamp or a boom box but with subtle taste so it doesn't sound unnaturally processed.  The classic, ultimate, rock drum sound, according to many, was played by John Bonham in Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks recorded by Andy Johns with one mic at the top of a stairwell.  One mic, a top rock drummer, good drums, and a great live space made music history.



JT: Favorite Hardware and plugin Compressor for Vocals



OM: Hardware - Fairchild or Urei LA2A.  Plug-ins - Not familar with all the plug-ins as I still mix mostly out of the box.  I like the Massey compressor and also use the "Fairchild" plug-in from the Pro Tools pack. 



 JT:   When you have a session with 7-8 guitar tracks how do you go about
placing them around in the stereo field. I always seem to end up with
just this wall of guitars. but not in the good metal kind of way it just
becomes a noise. I've tried carving Eqs and other techniques but
nothing seems to give me that strong and powerful guitar while still
allowing the vocals and drums to come through



OM:  I hard pan all of them evenly to begin with. One might go in the middle or off to one side not hard panned if there's an odd number of tracks.   I'm also not afraid to mute tracks if they are not contributing.  When sound waves interact with each other you get either destructive or constructive interference.  If it's destructive, then taking out that track will make the rest sound bigger.  Short delays (50 ms or less) will make muted string parts sound bigger and add to the rhythm.  Sometimes subtle chorusing, phasing or flanging can help depending on the parts but you never want it to sound artificial.  I've haven't heard any plug-in frequency modulators that I've liked that much, and a lot of those programs in multi-processor effects boxes like TC's M2000 sound very cheesy to me.  The best phasers/flangers are the old MXRs.  You'll find your best tremolo in a pedal or a vintage amp.

  



JT: Is it truly
possible to get that console Warmth and summing capabilities through the
plugins such as Waves NLS, Waves ReDD and the various UAD plugs. ( The
UAD stuff sounds AWESOME)



OM:  This reads as a bit of a strange question because I'm not aware of any plug-ins with summing capabilities.  I don't recommend mixing in the box.  The sound starts to get smaller and flatter with more tracks because the summing bus in DAWs don't do well with lots of tracks.  If a console isn't available then I suggest an outboard summing box like the Dangerous D.  Neve makes a good one too though more expensive.



I like UAD plug-ins, Waves are ok but don't have experience with those particular ones.



JT:  Favorite Reverb and Delay



Different favorites for different kinds. Favorite small room reverb: reamping the Waits room at Prairie Sun Recording where I work a lot.  Reamping into a good live room, stereo micing for the room sound ie mics in the corners or focused away from the reamp sounds better to me than any kind of digital or analog processor.  I like the old EMT plate reverbs, Prairie Sun has two.  Masterworks makes a very beautiful sounding Spring reverb.  As for digital reverbs, Bricasti sounds very natural.  I still like the old AMS and Lexicons 224 and 480 a lot.



Favorite delay is a Studer A80 quarter inch tape delay.  Tape delays in general - the old Roland 201 Space Echos ( but not their reverb).  Fulltone makes a good modern tape delay.  Best digital delays are the Lexicon PCM 41 and 42s.  I like some of the weird reverbs, delay and modulation programs from the Eventide H3000 series.



Question for you: what processor or piece of equipment in a recording studio would you spend the most time learning and studying to optimize your mixes?

Quo Vadis SPX?


Some say SPX is headed for the moon. Well, that was bit of an exaggeration, but surely we hear talk of SPX 2000. Personally, I think a long term top can be found around 1600. The question that I ask, whether that long term top is now or still few months down the line.



While many are pointing to various extreme reading of various indicators, I do not see any sign of correction yet. Only once so far the sell signal was triggered but that did not match with my other indicators and I decided not to short even when the sell signal was on. On hindsight, it was a good decision because had we been short, it would have caused us emotional pain and in some cases, the short positions have been puked already resulting in actual loss.



While I am advising subscribers not to short and stay on the sideline, for some of you who are short already, I would say that bear the pain if you do not want to book the loss. Nothing goes up for ever and this moon rocket is also subject to the law of gravity. Ben and other powers that be think that stock market is equal to economy and a higher stock market means a strong economy. So the never ending money printing and inflating the balloon goes on. We have seen this many times in the past.







And we know how it all ends. This time is never different. Only we do not want to front run and get run over.



So far the bubble has been formed in Equities and we have not yet seen the rise is other asset prices like Oil or PM sector. Before the bubble burst, we will see all these asset classes rise again. Oil should take out its all time high and gold should make a new high. Question is when. For now, the BOYZ are working on a simple plan. That is to get the retail and lagging fund managers move in to equities. It works on the simple hope that some else will buy the stocks at a higher price at a later date. If you don't believe, just look at the chart of Apple few months back. When Apple crossed $ 700, they were  talking about Apple $1000 and folks who bought Apple at $ 700, were hoping to flip it around soon. Same story now with something else.



Dow ended in red this Friday after 10 consecutive weekly gains and 8 new all time highs in a row. And SPX is trying to make its all time high. I think it is so damn risky to go long here but also not the right time to short. Not yet. There are other fish to fry in commodities and there is less risk there.



The blog posts have been irregular and my apologies for the tardiness. I intent to post at least two/three times a week but time is difficult to come by. In any case, I did not have much to say since my last post except repeating that:





Cash is King.



Have a great weekend folks. 

Too Noisy Fish

An old friend, Pierre Vervloesem, introduced me to his friend Peter Vandenberghe the pianist of the Belgian piano jazz trio Too Noisy Fish.  I worked with Pierre in the early '90s when Bill Laswell and I produced and engineered a couple of albums for the avant gard jazz/rock combo X-Legged Sally (pronounced Cross Legged Sally) at Greenpoint.



 Last time I saw Pierre, himself a talented producer and engineer, was backstage at a Material concert in Ghent, Belgium.  I remember this trip clearly for being one of the few times I got to mix my brother-in-arms Grandmixer D.ST one of the progenitors of turntablism, ie the turntable as a musical instrument.  At the time, I was wading through a complete linear read of Finnegans Wake for the first time while D.ST (now known as DXT) observed signs of an Illuminatti conspiracy in the jewelry of a woman seated across from us in a restaurant.  The thick plottened when Pierre laid a couple of cds of his recent labors havin' guarded experimentally eclectic approaches to its music and whimsical titles not so far from the Illuminati/Finnegans Wake nexus in the air. 



X-Legged Sally went their seperate ways in 1997.  Bandleader Peter Vermeersch went on to form a big band group called The Flat Earth Society.  Pierre plays guitar for them, engineers and mixes their recordings.  The members of Too Noisy Fish, Peter Vandenberghe, contra bassist Kristoff Roseeuw, and drummer/percussionist Teun Verbruggin comprise the heart of their rhythm section.



When I spoke to Peter Vandenberghe he mentioned liking the sound of the X-Legged Sally albums and asked what it would take to make a record with Too Noisy Fish.  I turned him on to my home away from home, Prairie Sun Recording in Cotati, California and a plan was made.  Peter sent me their most recent cd, Fast, Easy Sick which had been mixed by Pierre.  It sounded quite good, almost intimidatingly good because I wished to produce a recording that sounded at least as good or better.



Many of the song titles from Fast Easy Sick were quite humorous such as: 13 Potatos, Black Keys, White Keys: What's the difference, they All end Up the Same, Curly Wurly Napolean, and The Sky is Falling.  You can get a copy here.





 From left to right: Kristoff Roseeuw, Peter Vandenberghe, & Teun Verbruggin.  


Names of the fish unknown.



I booked Too Noisy Fish into Studio C at Prairie Sun mainly for the sound of the 9' concert grand piano that lived there.  It's an older piano, built around 1912 or something like that and has a darker sound with more character than your average contemporary recording piano such as a Yamaha.  The alternative was to put them in Studio B which has a Kimball 7' grand with a brighter, more generic sound similar to a Yamaha.



I miced the piano with a pair of Neumann KM54 tube mics in an X-Y pattern hovering over the hammers around middle C, and a pair of omnidirectional DPAs micing the body of the piano on the side the lid opens, one towards the back, the other near the front.  As the piano was in the same room as the drums, I used the lid open on the short peg and made a little tent over the DPAs with furniture blankets to minimize leakage.



The piano and drum worlds were set up facing each other in opposite diagonal corners, but not stuffed into the corners. Many gobos (baffles) were used to help with the isolation.  I had hoped to set up the contra bass world just outside the glass doors so everyone would have a line of sight with each other while also getting some isolation for the bass mics.  Kristof preferred to play his bass in the same room.  I acquiesced without protest despite this making my job considerably more difficult.  I had seen the Fish on You Tube so knew they played dynamically and listened to each other.  This is key to getting any kind of reasonable balance with acoustic instruments all playing together in the same room live.  I dampened the acoustics in the Corn Room as much as possible.



Studio C at Prairie Sun has three rooms, the Corn Room - very live when you take everything out of it, The Waits Room named after Tom Waits who first suggested recording in it; a stone floor, high ceiling & wood panels give this small room golden acoustics, and Room 66 - the "control room" area resides in one corner of this room that serves as an antechamber to the Waits and Corn rooms at opposite ends.



I miced the contra bass with a Neumann tube 47 near the " F hole"  - the opening on the right side of the bass body, and used a Neumann 582 cardiod condensor aimed at the strings a foot or so above the bridge to get a brighter sound.  Also had a DI ( direct injection) box for the pick-up on the bass. It sounded nasally on it's own but blended with the mics, worked well.



Teun put together a drum kit from the Prairie Sun collection of drums.  He used an 18" Sonar floor tom for his bass drum.  It was double headed with nothing inside to dampen it resulting in a very deep and resonant, old school jazz kind of sound.  He accented a standard drum kit with a variety of percussion instruments and sound modifiers.  He uses some of these percussion instruments to "prepare" the drums ( as in a prepared piano) by putting them on the drum skins - the snare or toms - to alter the timbre of the drum as well as adding the sound of the percussion.  These include: 2 children's music boxes, 2 Thai healing bells,  3 egg shakers, Christmas bells in a plastic bag - the bag adds to this sound, 2 kalimbas, a woodblock, 2 cowbells, Ahoko - dry nuts from Africa's Ivory Coast, a small drum to put on the rack tom, a child's toy xylophone, a tambourine, East Indian finger cymbals, and an iron chain.  Teun brought his own cymbals which were strategically broken and taped to give a very different cymbal sound.  He used regular  drum sticks, brushes, and hotrods (a combination of brush and stick), and sometimes even chopsticks to play the drums.  Also, a contra bass bow that sounded quite eerily alive when used on the edges of the cymbals.



Too Noisy Fish, along with Peter's wife Trisha arrived from Belgium a couple of days before the start of the sessions, and settled into the studio accomodations, their own house on the southwestern corner of the studio property. Trisha, a filmmaker, was there, apart from moral support, to document the proceedings.  I did a short interview with her on a break from mixing.



My nervousness at making a record that sounded as good as the last one completely disappeared as soon as we got sounds and they started playing.  I realized that the excellence of their sound came from the group itself, the technical sound just had to capture that faithfully.  I never heard that piano sound as good , and it was almost as easy as just turning up the faders.  Usually I end up applying some eq to the piano . . . not this time.  The mics were going into vintage Neve mic pres with only a mild amount of compression. 



I knew that part of what makes a great horn, string, or woodwind player great is the tone they get out of their instrument but had forgotten that this also applies to the piano.  The piano sound was harmonically rich, warm, articulate and clear - very even up and down the keyboard.  It reminded me of recording Herbie Hancock for a Jungle Brothers record, and of the Cuban musician Pepcito Reyes who played like he was making love to the piano. 



The songs were almost all instrumentals though they did have lyrics for a two song cycle called Bring It Home/ Oh God.  However, there was only one person in the world they felt could do it justice and that was Tom Waits.  I agreed with them and sent Tom an email.  Within a couple of hours we received a reply from his assistant Julianne Deery saying he had commitments he couldn't shake.  The promptness and cheerfulness of the reply led us to believe we had Tom's blessing anyway.



Another song was titled Turkish Laundry which continued their emergent tradition of "laundry" songs set in interesting geographical locations.  On the last album it was Latin Laundry, and suggestions were solicited on where to go for clean clothes on the next one.  When hearing about this tradition it recalled being in Mali with KSK producer Aja Salvatore when we auditioned Bari, a master musician who played a short Fulani reed flute that had a beeswax mouth piece. - we ended up recording and mixing a record with him bthat's in the vault.  After playing for a bit, he walked up to me and started directing his flute playing up and down the outside of body as if to clean the edges of my electromagnetic field or what some people call the "aura."  He proceeded to do the same for Aja.  Later, I asked what he was doing.  He laughed, and said he was just dusting us off.  Turkish Laundry reminded me that music can create cleaning environments.  Bob Dylan underscores this point when he "goes into a laundry to wash his clothes down" before going on an epic journey in the song Isis.



On a break during the second day of recording, Lucas Nelson, son of Willie came down to say hello.  He was recording with his band in studio B.  Nicest guy you could imagine, he spoke of the thrill of playing at Farm Aid sharing the bill with his father, Neil Young, and Jack Johnson.



Too Noisy Fish got everything recorded in about two and a half days.  The last half day we spent reviewing and choosing master takes.  Most of the songs landed within two to four takes.  At least one, maybe two were done in one take.  The most we ever did was six or seven versions of one song.



I recorded them to 24 track, two inch multitrack analog tape running at 30 inches/second (ips) with no noise reduction then transferred it to Pro Tools.  Mic pres were mostly vintage Neve with vintage APIs on some of the drum tracks.



Everything had been recorded live with the exception of one or two percussion overdubs, and my voice, playing the (uncharacteristically I hope) part of a harried music producer.  The length of the cd was getting to be too long so they recut two of the improv pieces, Slow B (for blues) and Fast B then had them end abruptly with an old-fashioned phone ring that I answered.



Two samples were used - one from the original Space Invaders video game for the song Jazz Invaders, and the other from and old Russian documentary with haunting female narration that had been financed by the Soviet regime.  Peter tried to have the Russian dialog translated but was told that it was too abstract to understand.  To me, this sample and the whole song, Necrophilology has a mood like something out of Dostoevsky.



We celebrated the finish of the recording by going out for Japanese food.  The conversation was as good as the food ranging from the state of the biz in Europe and America to natural ways of expanding consciousness apart from playing music.  



  I chose to mix this in Studio B on Pete Townsend's old vintage Neve to maintain the purity and naturalness of the tones.  Most of the time I prefer mixing on the SSL in Studio A as it offers a lot more versatility to sculpt the sound but with this record I wished to manipulate the tones as little as possible to keep it honest with what the musicians had laid down.  The mixdown recorder was an analog Ampex 1/2 inch running at 30 ips.



The mixing went well and was accomplished in two long days.  I would have preferred a third day but sometimes imposed limitations become a necessary parameter for the final outcome.  We spent a lot of time on the first song with everyone zeroing in on what they wished to hear out of the balance then the rest seemed to flow fairly easily from there.  The only difficulties I encountered was when they played triple forte ( ie very loud) making a lot of leakage to contend with.  The band wisely stayed out of the control room and left me to my own devices until I was ready for them to hear a mix.  Peter had a very strong reaction to one of the mixes as it was going to tape.  I'd only experienced an artist react that way once before to hearing a final mix.  That was the lead singer for the Brazilian band O Rappa who wept when he heard the final mix Bill Laswell and I had made.  That lets me know, at least for those pieces, that I've done my job which is to sucessfully realize the vision of the artist . . . and then some!



The record still has to be mastered which I'm going to do at my new location inside the Song Relic Studios compound in the Sierra foothills.  Stayed tuned for further info on how to get this when it's released which likely won't be for a few months.






















Everything Must Be Great




DOW made new high!. Yeeeee.

Now everything in the world must be al-right and every American is now rich. The retirement accounts are filled to the brim and no body cares what the crooks do.

But I feel little sad for ZH and Prechter. These guys are running out of ideas about what to write about the imminent collapse of USA. Not only the collapse (which was just round the corner) never materialised, even a 10% decent correction is also not on horizon. Only last October they were saying that QE4 has failed to do its magic and QE is dead. So far I have not seen anything anywhere saying sorry, we were wrong.



Anyway, now that Indices have or are in the process of making new high, where in the sentiment cycle are we?



I personally think we are in the Euphoria stage. The retail is just now getting excited about the rally while the TA guys have given up.



Our collective memory is short. Otherwise, we would have simply looked at what happened during the same period of last year.




This is a daily chart of SPX from December end of 2011. Does the up move of 2012 looks similar? If they look like ducks, walk like ducks and quack like ducks, then most likely they are ducks. And most likely this years pattern is just a repeat of last year. And by that token, the bears should remain in hibernation till the better part of March. 





We went out of all long positions by end of Jan. with SPX around 1510. So far we have given up about 30 points rally but we have no emotional roller coaster ride. We are what is called reluctant bear, sitting on the sideline. Just waiting for the move to exhaust itself. We have avoided all temptations to short because our model did not give us the go ahead signal. And we are not looking for the end of the world, not yet.





Coming back to the market, the shearing is not yet complete. 




I think the BOYZ will spend another couple of weeks to corral most of the sheeples. Retail almost always buys at the top and why it would be any exception this time? And for those TA enthusiasts looking for all sorts of elusive Da Vinci Code for the Top and shorting relentlessly, only to lose the underpants, I have news for you. The Fed is buying Bonds almost every day for the month of March! (POMO Days are here again).





I am not for a moment saying that buy buy buy. On the contrary, I think if we are long, its better to take chips off the table and raise cash. We have gone off gold and silver sometimes back and are waiting for the cycles to bottom. But I am not shorting anything yet. Subscribers will get email when the signal comes and they know the levels to watch for.





So far the market is moving as per my base line projection for 2013. If ZH and Prechter can continue till 2014, they might have some chance of gloating. But that's a long shot. We will take one month at a time and put forward our steps very carefully. From now till next few years, before I make any investment or trading decision, I will be asking myself: how much will I lose, if I am wrong, instead of thinking how much will I make. 





Its a jungle out there. So don't front run and trade safe.


Have a great weekend folks.






You Want To Know What Is Risk?


What is risk?

Risk is the amount of money you will lose if you are wrong.

To know how ordinary investors chase beta and lose money, you must read the following:

How to lose money

It is said the bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.